知识与财富的链接
电线积冰事故对国民经济危害巨大,急需电线积冰厚度的预报产品。利用耦合了欧洲导线覆冰预报系统的WRF模式,在考虑了覆冰融化的基础上,对2008年1~2月贵州省凝冻天气期间的电线覆冰厚度进行了模拟研究,研究结果表明：WRF模式模拟的气象要素与观测值较为接近,可用模拟的气象场对贵州省导线覆冰进行模拟;模拟站点覆冰厚度的时间变化特征与观测结果非常接近,区域覆冰厚度的时空变化可分为4个阶段：覆冰初步形成期、持续期、加重期及融化期。对比观测站点的覆冰记录,模拟基本重现2008年1~2月贵州省导线覆冰的变化过程;模拟的区域覆冰极值厚度分布也与观测值的相关系数达到0.6,通过了0.01的信度检验。总的来说,该系统能对覆冰的发生、发展及进程进行较为准确的预报,对输电线路上的冰冻灾害防治具有重要意义。
The accident of wire icing is very harmful to social economy, and the forecast production of wire icing thickness is urgent needed at present. Based on the WRF model coupled with the Ice Acceleration forecast system form Europe and considering melting process of icing, a simulation study was conducted on the transmission line icing thickness during the frozen weather in GuiZhou province from January to February 2008. The results show that: The meteorological data simulated by WRF model are close to the observed records, and can be used to simulate the icing condition of transmission lines. The time variation of ice thickness at the simulated site is consistent with the observation results. The spatial and temporal variation of ice thickness in GuiZhou province can be divided into four stages: preliminary formation, continuous, aggravation and melting process. Compared with ice records of observation stations, the change process of wire icing in GuiZhou province from January to February 2008 was well simulated. The correlation coefficient of the simulated extreme ice thickness and the observed records in GuiZhou province was up to 0.6, which passed the reliability test of 0.01. In general, the Ice acceleration forecast system can accurately forecast the occurrence, development and progress of ice thickness, which is of great significance for the prevention and control of freezing disaster on transmission line.
