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气象卫星资料在临近预报中的定量应用:进展和挑战

气象卫星资料在临近预报中的定量应用:进展和挑战

ISSN:2095-6037
2024年第122卷第3期
Jun LI1,Jing ZHENG1,Bo LI1,Min MIN2,Yanan LIU3,Chian-Yi LIU4,Zhenglong LI5,W. Paul MENZEL5,Timothy J. SCHMIT6,John L. CINTINEO5,Scott LINDSTROM5,Scott BACHMEIER5,Yunheng XUE7,Yayu MA8,Di DI9,Han LIN10

在短时间内监测和预测局地天气事件,通常需要提前几分钟到几个小时不等,对决策者和公众非常重要。天气事件的临近预报一般依赖于雷达监测和外推,而卫星观测能提供强对流阶段的环境特征信息,对态势感知和风暴预警具有非常重要的作用。结合先进的气象卫星高分辨率成像和探测观测,并利用机器学习,可以加强气象卫星资料在临近预报中的定量应用。这些应用包括对风暴不同阶段(初生、触发、发展和衰减)的位置监测,对影响区域、强度、水汽条件、大气不稳定度、降水及其他物理性质的判断,以及对风暴类型(风、雪、冰雹等)的识别和对风暴演变的预测。本文概述了卫星资料在临近预报中定量应用相关的进展及其挑战,并对未来的前景进行了讨论和展望。


Monitoring and predicting highly localized weather events over a very short-term period, typically ranging from minutes to a few hours, are very important for decision makers and public action. Nowcasting these events usually relies on radar observations through monitoring and extrapolation. With advanced high-resolution imaging and sounding observations from weather satellites, nowcasting can be enhanced by combining radar, satellite, and other data, while quantitative applications of those data for nowcasting are advanced through using machine learning techniques. Those applications include monitoring the location, impact area, intensity, water vapor, atmospheric instability, precipitation, physical properties, and optical properties of the severe storm at different stages (pre-convection, initiation, development, and decaying), identification of storm types (wind, snow, hail, etc.
), and predicting the occurrence and evolution of the storm. Satellite observations can provide information on the environmental characteristics in the pre-convection stage and are very useful for situational awareness and storm warning. This paper provides an overview of recent progress on quantitative applications of satellite data in nowcasting and its challenges, and future perspectives are also addressed and discussed.

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ISSN:2095-6037
2024年第122卷第3期

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