知识与财富的链接
稻谷最低收购价是我国粮食价格支持政策的重要措施。2004年以来,政策实施的基本目标围绕稳定国内粮食生产、保障国内粮食安全展开,其关键在于把握最低收购价格形成的市场预期效应。基于早、中、晚籼稻和粳稻的省级数据,采用面板估计方法分析稻谷最低收购价格在不同区域和时期对其市场价格预期的影响。研究发现：（1）无论在非政策执行区,还是政策执行区的非执行期内,稻谷最低收购价均有助于形成积极的市场预期,但其影响在非执行区弱于前1期市场价格的影响,而在执行区强于前1期市场价格的影响。（2）在政策执行区的执行期内,基于最低收购价格的托市效应,前1期市场价格对预期的价格差额（市场价格与最低收购价的预期差额）具有正向影响,最低收购价格则呈负向影响。因此,最低收购价格政策的改革应围绕政策执行目标充分考虑未来政策改革对市场预期的冲击。
The minimum purchase price of rice is an important grain price support policy in China. Since the price support policy was implemented in 2004, the basic goal has been to stabilize domestic grain production and ensure food security. The key point is to clarify the effect of minimum purchase price on market price expectation. Based on provincial data for early, medium and late indica and japonica rice, we constructed a price expectation panel model to empirically investigate the impact of the minimum purchase price of rice on its market price expectations in different regions and periods. The study found that: 1) the minimum purchase price of rice contributed to positive market expectations both in the non-policy implementation area and in the non-implementation period of the policy implementation area, but its impact was weaker than the impact of the market price in the previous period in the non-implementation area, and stronger than the impact of the market price in the previous period in the implementation area. 2) During the implementation period of the policy implementation zone, the previous period of market price has a positive effect on the expected price difference （the difference between market price and minimum purchase price）, and a negative effect on the minimum purchase price. Therefore, the reform of the minimum purchase price policy should fully consider the impact of future policy changes on market expectations based on the policy goals.