知识与财富的链接
本文利用新疆主要冰雹多发地区及全疆年雹灾面积资料,根据各地防雹业务发展节点确定各地科学开展人工防雹作业开始年,利用Welch检验、t-检验等统计学方法,对主要冰雹多发区和全疆科学开展人工防雹作业前后的年雹灾面积系统性差异进行分析,以评估新疆绿洲人工防雹作业效果。结果表明：阿克苏地区科学开展人工防雹作业减灾效果非常显著,显著性水平高达0.01。在统计显著性水平α=0.1下,平均年雹灾面积减少15062.9 hm2,相对减少率为43.14%,平均年减少雹灾损失28109万元,占年平均农业产值的3.49%,平均年投入产出比为1:6;区域回归分析显示,阿克苏地区科学开展人工防雹作业后,平均年雹灾面积减少23802 hm2,相对减少率为54.5%,平均年减少雹灾损失44417万元,占年平均农业产值的5.51%,平均年投入产出比为1:10,显著性水平高达0.01。奎玛流域和伊犁河谷地区科学开展人工防雹作业效果显著度为0.2,显著性一般。新疆整体科学开展人工防雹作业减灾效果显著性水平接近0.05,作业减灾效果显著;在统计显著性水平α=0.1下,全疆平均年雹灾面积减少3374.3 hm2,相对减少率为4.1%,平均年减少雹灾损失6663.6万元,占年平均农业产值的0.09%。新疆兵团博乐垦区和五家渠垦区的人工防雹减灾效果经统计检验,显著度均为0.05,人工防雹减灾效果显著。说明,新疆兵团人工防雹作业效果好于地方;全疆整体防雹减灾效果显著;阿克苏地区人工防雹减灾效果显著性高;但其它地区人工防雹作业效果一般,这导致全疆的平均雹灾面积绝对减少值和减少率低。同时表明,新疆人工防雹减灾作业管理、作业方式方法有待改进,作业效果有进一步提升的空间。
To analyze the effect of artificial hail suppression, the systematic differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period are analyzed in main hail-prone areas in Xinjiang and the whole Xinjiang in this paper, using statistical methods such as the Welch test and t-test, with annual hailstorm areas data in main hail-prone areas in Xinjiang and the whole Xinjiang, determining a scientifically beginning year to carry out artificial hail suppression according to different nodes of the hail suppression business development in different areas. The results show that it is obvious that the hail disasters decreased after the operation of scientifically artificial hail suppression in Akesu .The significance level is as high as 0.01. At the statistical significant level α=0.1, the average annual hail areas reduce 15063 hm2, and the relative loss rate is 43.14%. Combined with the agricultural economic data, the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss is 281,090,000 RMB, annual input and output ratio is 1:6. Using the method of the regression test of areas, the results showed that the average annual hail area was reduced 23802 hm2, and the relative loss rate was 54.5% after the operation of scientifically artificial hail suppression in Akesu. Combined with the agricultural economic data, the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss was 444,170,000 RMB, annual input and output ratio nearly was 1:10. The statistical significant level highly reached α=0.01. The statistical significant levels of artificial hail suppression in the Kuitun-Manasi valley and Yili valley were 0.2, which were not significant. The disaster reduction effect of artificial hail suppression in whole xinjiang is significant, and the significance level is close to 0.05. At the statistical significant level α=0.1, the average annual hail areas reduce 3374.3hm2, and the relative loss rate is 4.1%, the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss is 66,636,000 RMB, accounting for 0.09% of the annual average agricultural output value. The results of disaster reduction of artificial hail suppression in Bole reclamation area and Wujiaqu reclamation area of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps showed that the significance levels were 0.05, and the disaster reduction effects of artificial hail suppression were significant in both reclamation areas. The analysis shows that the artificial hail suppression effect in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps is better than that in local regions. The overall artificial hail suppression effect in Xinjiang is remarkable. The results of artificial hail suppression and disaster reduction in Akesu area are remarkable. However, artificial hail suppression works in other regions was not effective, which led to the low absolute reduction and low reduction rate of average hail disaster area in Xinjiang. At the same time, it shows that the management and operation methods of artificial hail suppression in Xinjiang need to be improved, and the effect has room for further.