知识与财富的链接
我国稻谷的产量与消费量都位居世界第一,但稻谷期货在1998年退出期货市场后,一直没有恢复上市．文章从实证的角度,运用比较分析、敏感分析和相关分析对稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆几个主要粮食品种的产量和价格的波动情况进行了研究。通过研究发现,稻谷的产量与价格波动幅度最大,而稻谷的产量与下期价格相关程度最小,不利于维护粮食安全,建议尽快恢复稻谷期货上市。
This article analyses the fluctuation of the output and price of the rice, wheat, corn and soybean by empirical methods such as comparative analysis, correlation analysis and Granger Causality Test and so on. The results show that the fluctuation of the output and price of the rice is the biggest. But the relativity between the output and the next time price of rice is smallest, which is disadvantageous to the maintenance of grain security. It is suggested that the rice future market be restored as soon as possible.