知识与财富的链接
本文发现M2是一个退势平稳过程,而非单位根过程。尽管M2具有较强的内生性,但同时也受外生货币政策因素冲击或影响。内生因素和外生因素共同作用使M2围绕一条稳态增长路径上下波动;并且M2偏离稳态增长路径会造成产出波动。于是本文利用2000年至2007年的M2月度数据,分别建立SARMA模型和含月度虚拟变量的组合模型,对这条动态增长路径进行拟合。利用2008年的最新数据评价模型的预测能力时,我们发现M2仍然处在这条动态增长路径上。
We find M2 is not a process with unit-root but a Trend-stationary.Although M2 is endogenous to some content,exogenous factor also influences it.M2 fluctuates in a path of stabilizing increase under the influence of endogenous and exogenous factor,its bias to the path of stabilizing increase would cause fluctuate of production.We give a SARMA and a combination model with the monthly dummy variable to estimate the equilibrium path with the M2 data from 2000 to 2007.Then we compare the efficiency for forecasti...
