知识与财富的链接
基于国家气候中心的海气耦合业务预测系统CGCM_1.1的预测资料产品,集成并完善了一个单向嵌套的、中尺度海气耦合的区域气候模式ASRegCM,并以其为数值计算核心,建立了一套航空短期区域气候预测业务系统ASRCPOS.对1983~2002年(共20年)的回报试验结果显示,ASRCPOS业务预测水平较前期统计预测为主业务系统的预测水平有一定程度的提高.尤其是在对连续型变量地面气温的距平,以及对非连续型变量地面降水的距平量级预测能力方面,该动力业务系统预测能力较前期业务系统有所改善.回报结果同时显示,业务系统在异常天气气温的预测方面存在较大的改进空间,对月以下时间尺度预报的解释应用方面仍存在一定的局限.
A regional atmospheric and oceanic coupled model named Aviation Short-term Regional Climate Model (ASRegCM) is developed and nested into the short-term climate prediction model CGCM_1.1 from the National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,which forms an operational prediction system ASRCPOS for aviation climate prediction. 20-year experiments from 1983 to 2002 were conducted using ASRCPOS. Numerical results show that ASRCPOS can improve prediction accuracy as compared with global scal...
