欧佩克(OPEC)是一个国际石油供应组织, 其石油政策的重点是通过实施生产配额制度, 对国际市场的油价进行控制, 以实现其石油收益的最大化。本文依据丰富翔实的历史及现状数据资料, 对欧佩克生产配额制度进行了深入研究后得出三点结论: 首先, 生产配额、产量与油价关系紧密, 欧佩克实施配额制度是其实施卡特尔控制的手段之一, 配额制度在欧佩克发展历史上发挥了重要作用, 尽管当前生产配额制度对油价的控制作用在一定程度上弱化, 但也正在发挥作用, 与此同时也存在一定的问题。其次, 欧佩克生产配额制度对油价的影响具阶段性特征, 本文分别对欧佩克在启动期、活跃期、挫折期、成熟期和彷徨期5个阶段中石油生产配额、产量与油价的关系进行了对比分析与研究, 得出了不同时期欧佩克生产配额、产量与油价的关系, 形成了若干重要认识。第三, 分析预测了未来欧佩克生产配额与油价的关系, 探讨了生产配额制度对世界市场油价走向的影响。
OPEC is an international organization of oil supply, whose key oil policy is to carry out oil production quotas system in order to safeguard OPEC maximum oil revenue. According to plenty of history and status quo data, some conclusions have been reached on the basis of a deep study of the OPEC oil production quotas system. First, oil production quotas and production are closely linked with oil prices in international oil market. The production quotas system is one of the means to carry out OPEC cartel control, which has been playing an important role in affecting oil prices, although the control action of the system is weakened now. At the same time, something is wrong with the oil production quotas system. Second, the time-phased features of the quotas system affecting oil prices are obvious. The relations between production quotas, production and oil prices at various stages (initiation period, active period, frustration period, mature period and wandering period) have been comparatively studied in this paper, with abundant important knowledge obtained. Thirdly, the future relations between OPEC oil production quotas and oil prices are analyzed and predicted. The influence of oil production quotas on the trend of the international oil prices are also tentatively discussed in this paper.