知识与财富的链接
基于北京延庆县东大桥气象水文站观测的气温、降水和径流数据,采用Thornthwaite水文模型和Mann—Kendall突变与趋势检验法,对该站点所控制的部分妫水河流域的年平均气温和降水进行长期趋势检验和突变分析,同时对模型模拟的径流、蒸散量、土壤含水量进行长期趋势检验和突变分析。结果表明:1980—2000年与1959—1979年相比,研究区气温升高了2.45%,降水量减少了8.57%,地表径流减少了8.86%,实际蒸散量降低了8.54%,土壤含水量减少了76.95%。20世纪50年代以来,研究区一致表现为气温升高和降水减少。径流、实际蒸散量、土壤含水量也随之减少,并在1975年左右发生突变,整体表现出干旱化倾向。气候变化已经对区域水循环产生重要影响。
The lumped water balance of Guishui River Basin in Yanqing,Beijing was simulated with Thornthwaite model at a monthly interval from 1959 to 2000.The simulated hydrological components,including surface runoff,evapotranspiration and soil moisture,precipitation as well as air temperature were analyzed with the Mann—Kendall method for long-term trend and abrupt change investigation.The results showed that the study area had experienced an increase in air temperature and a decrease in precipitation since 1950s.Surface runoff,actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture were subsequently reduced.Compared with the period of 1959—1979,the air temperature had increased 2.45%,while the precipitation had decreased 8.57% from 1980 to 2000,resulting in the decrease in 8.86% for surface runoff,the decrease in 8.54% for evapotranspiration,and the decrease in 76.95% for soil moisture.The abrupt change of these hydrological components was observed to occur in 1975 and incdicated the drought trend.It can be concluded that the climate change has indeed impacted hydrological processes in this basin.
